The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials.

In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse.

Sornette proposes a radically different view: Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in , to the Great Crash of October and Black Monday in , to cite just a few.

He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe.

Stock Market Crashes, Precursors and Replicas - PDF

Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets. It's everybody's favorite topic of conversation at the moment: UCLA professor Sornette does his best to tackle Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems.

Princeton University Press , 21 mars - pages. Why stock markets crash: Chapter 3 FINANCIAL CRASHES ARE OUTLIERS. Chapter 4 POSITIVE FEEDBACKS.

Econophysics and Data Driven Modelling of Market Dynamics - Google Livres

Chapter 5 MODELING FINANCIAL BUBBLES AND MARKET CRASHES. Chapter 8 BUBBLES CRISES AND CRASHES IN EMERGENT MARKETS.

THE END OF THE GROWTH ERA? Most attempts to explain market Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems Didier Sornette Princeton University Press , 21 mars - pages 0 Avis The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials.

WHAT HOW WHY AND WHEN? Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems Princeton Science Library.